PENGUJIAN BIAS PERILAKU: GAMBLER’S FALLACY, HALO EFFECT, DAN FAMILIARITY EFFECT DI PASAR MODAL INDONESIA

Riana Rahmawati Djojopranoto, Putu Anom Mahadwartha

Abstract


This study aims to examine the biased behavior of investor in uptrend and/or downtrend market in Indonesian stock exchange. Behavioral bias is indicated by three variables: gambler’s fallacy, halo effect, and familiarity effect. Data were collected using questionnaire and distributed to 384 respondents. First, questionnaires were analyzed using frequency distribution. Second, questionnaires were assessed using Likert scale and analyzed using one sample t-test and paired t-test to answer the hypothesis and research questions. The result shows that gambler’s fallacy exists in investors when they trade in uptrend stock market, but does not exist in downtrend stock market. Halo effect does not exist when they trade in uptrend and downtrend stock market. Meanwhile, familiarity effect exists when they trade in uptrend and downtrend stock market. In uptrend stock market, familiarity effect was greater than that of the downtrend stock market. Based on the result, this research concluded that in general, investors in Indonesian stock market are irrational in decision making process. In the uptrend market, behavioral bias is potentially greater than that in the downtrend market as indicated by the occurrence of gambler’s fallacy and familiarity effect. Meanwhile, in the downtrend market, the behavioral bias is indicated by familiarity effect.

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Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menguji bias perilaku yang terjadi pada investor saat kondisi uptrend dan downtrend di pasar modal Indonesia. Bias perilaku diteliti melalui 3 variabel: gambler’s fallacy, halo effect, dan familiarity effect. Data dikumpulkan menggunakan kuesioner dengan jumlah sampel sebanyak 384 responden. Pertama, kuesioner dianalisis menggunakan distribusi frekuensi. Kedua, kuesioner diberikan nilai menggunakan skala Likert dan dianalisis menggunakan one sample t-test dan paired t-test untuk menjawab hipotesis dan pertanyaan penelitian. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa gambler’s fallacy terjadi pada investor saat kondisi uptrend, tetapi tidak terjadi saat kondisi downtrend. Halo effect tidak terjadi pada investor, baik ketika kondisi uptrend dan downtrend. Sementara itu, familiarity effect terjadi pada investor saat kondisi uptrend dan downtrend. Familiarity effect terjadi lebih besar saat kondisi pasar modal mengalami uptrend. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian ini, secara umum, investor di pasar modal Indonesia mengambil keputusan secara irasional. Saat kondisi uptrend, perilaku bias berpeluang lebih besar terjadi dibandingkan saat kondisi downtrend, yang diindikasikan dengan terjadinya gambler’s fallacy dan familiarity effect. Sementara itu, saat kondisi downtrend, perilaku bias diindikasikan dengan terjadinya familiarity effect.


Keywords


behavioral bias; gambler’s fallacy; halo effect; familiarity effect; bias perilaku; gambler’s fallacy; halo effect; familiarity effect

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.21002/jaki.2016.08



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